Tuesday, April 10, 2007

My Playoff Predictions

EAST

Buffalo over NY Islanders in 5 games. This appears to be the only one-sided match ups. The Sabres have speed, scoring, defense and goaltending. And the Sabres are finally healthy again with Connolly and Afinogenov back in the lineup. The Islanders qualified for the playoffs on the last day of the regular season in a shootout but no shootouts in the playoffs.

New Jersey over Tampa Bay in 6 games. Great scoring in Lecavalier and St. Louis but I don't think that will help much against Brodeur who has had a career season and is my candidate for league MVP. He had 12 shutouts in the regular season and I can see him adding a few more in the playoffs. The defense is solid and Matvichuk is back from a season long injury (partly because they had no cap space). The Devils can be beaten but it won't be by the Bolts.

NY Rangers over Atlanta in 7 games. The addition of Tkachuk and Zhitnik has given Atlanta a second scoring line and a mobile defenseman but they continue to struggle in their own end. The Rangers got hot at the end of the season because Lundqvist got hot. Shanahan has recovered from his injury and Jagr seems to have picked up his play. That should be enough to get by Atlanta.

Ottawa over Pittsburgh in 6 games. I know lots of people are picking Pittsburgh because they finished strong but so did Ottawa. Yes Pittsburgh has Crosby and Malkin but right now the pair aren't as good as Heatley and Spezza. Ottawa's top 4 defensemen are superior to the Penguin's top 4. Finally, I don't think Fleury is quite ready for prime time. Maybe next year.

West

Calgary over Detroit in 7 games. On paper this looks like a sure thing for Detroit but it's not. Calgary is much better than they were in 2004 when they made it to the finals. The Wings are in a very weak conference (Columbus, St. Louis and Chicago) while the Flames are in a very tough conference so their 96 points were much tougher to earn than the Wings' 113 points. This should be a great goalie series with Hasek and Kiprusoff facing each other.

Minnesota over Anaheim in 7 games. I'm predicting another upset in the West. Anaheim has been the at the top of the standing all season in the West and slipped back when Pronger got hurt. He is back and the Ducks will be tough. But Lemaire has his team playing just the way he likes. The Wild will strangle you defensively. Backstrom is this year's Cam Ward with an eye-popping 1.97 goals against average. Finally teaming up Demitra and Gaborik has finally provided the Wild with some creative offense.

Vancouver over Dallas in 6 games. This will be a very low scoring affair. Neither team has much scoring and both have great goalies but Turko has been a bust every year in the playoffs. The Canucks may be a one-line, one goalie team but with Turco's history that will be more than enough.

San Jose over Nashville in 7 games. This is the best first round matchup in West. Both teams have impressive forwards with oe Thornton, Patrick Marleau and Jonathan Cheechoo lining up on one side and Steve Sullivan, Peter Forsberg, Jason Arnott, and Paul Kariya on the other side. Give the edge to Nahsville here. But the Sharks have the edge on defense. Both teams have good goaltending including good backups. In fact I would take either Mason or Toskala over Raycroft any day. I just think that at this point in their careers, it will be tougher to stop Thornton than Forsberg so the Sharks have the edge.