James Mirtle who writes for the Globe has done a lot of analysis on the impact that the Ovechkin contract could have on Washington by the time it expires. Some people are calling Ovechkin O-Rod because its hockey's equivalent to the Alex Rodriguez contract.
Since he entered the NHL, he has been the league's most prolific goal scorer. Mirtle points out that only two modern players, for instance, sit ahead of his .632 career goals-per-game average (Mike Bossy and Mario Lemieux). And the fact he's notched 252 points in his first 207 NHL games. But Ovechkin's 13-year contract expires when he turns 35. It's a risky contract because the history of the NHL suggests that 50 goal scorers do not remain as elite players for that long of a period.
Only 87 players in NHL history have scored 50 goals in a season, and that's a group that includes the majority of the game's top-producing players of all time. If you eliminate the 18 that are still active the number falls to 69. Here are some interesting stats:
1. Over half had their last 30-goal season before turning 31.
2. 78% had their last 40-goal season before turning 31.
3. Eleven of the 69 played their last 60-game season before turning 30.
4. Average age they last played 60 games in a season: 33.3
5. Average age they last scored 40 goals in a season: 28.5
6. Average age they last scored 30 goals in a season: 30.5
There is no way of knowing when Ovechkin's production will drop off. Brett Hull and Marcel Dionne were productive for a long time. Mike Bossy and Cam Neely did not last nearly as long. But they were all great players.
This contract has no risk for the player and lots for the team.
12 years ago
