Friday, December 07, 2007

Heat is off Ferguson and Maurice for now

A modest 4 game winning streak is quite effective in calming the media wolves and over-engaged fans that follow the Toronto Maple Leafs. This means that both John Ferguson and Paul Maurice will still be employed over Christmas. So why are the Leafs winning? And will they continue to win and contend for a playoff spot?

Three things are contributing to the current win streak. They are finally getting good goaltending. No one wins in the NHL without it. When Lundquist, Luongo and Brodeur play poorly, their respective team lose.

The Leafs are playing better in their own end. Defensive coverage is better but not great but combined with better goaltending means they have a chance to win every game. It also means they can hold a lead. There have no 3rd period collapses lately. Keeping the number of shots down on their own goalies has certainly paid off. And playing better defense does not necessarily hurt your offense. There was too much focus on Tucker and Blake not scoring although the team was near the top of the league in scoring.

Finally, JFJ's excuse about injuries have some validity. It's not that Tucker, Wellwood and Bell have played well or can carry the team. Rather, it's the players they have pushed out of the lineup that makes the difference. The minor leaguers or marginal players who fill in have not played very well. So by taking Battaglia, Newbury, Stahlman, and Gamache out of the lineup and reducing the ice time of Wozniewski, Pohl and Kilger, you improve your team. At one point, Chad Kilger was the number two centre.

The Leafs' success will last as long as they continue to get good goaltending, play team defense and avoid injuries. The Leaf defense is still porous and error-prone Bryan McCabe plays almost half the game. They will have to battle to the final weekend for a playoff spot because they will need a minimum of 92 to 94 points to make the playoffs which means a winning percentage of 59-60% for the rest of the season.